Global Prediction Market Overview: November 1, 2023

GLOBAL PREDICTION MARKET OVERVIEW

As of November 1, 2023, prediction markets globally are tracking 1695 active markets with a total trading volume of $4,634,685,920. This extensive activity underscores the growing interest and participation in forecasting events across various domains such as politics, sports, and technology.

HIGHEST VOLUME MARKETS

The most active markets today predominantly center around political events, particularly the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election. The market on whether Oprah Winfrey will win the Democratic nomination leads with a volume of $51,064,775 and a probability of 0.8%. Close behind is the market for LeBron James winning the presidential election, showing a similar probability of 0.7% with a volume of $51,059,103. These figures suggest a speculative interest in celebrity candidates, despite their low probabilities.

Another high-volume market is the potential for a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by May 31, 2026, which holds a 28.5% probability and a volume of $49,902,955. This indicates substantial trader interest in geopolitical developments.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS

Several markets have experienced notable shifts in probabilities, particularly those related to sports and entertainment. The probability of Max Verstappen announcing his retirement before the 2029 F1 season has increased to 8.0%, reflecting a modest increase in trader sentiment, albeit with low volumes such as $182. This could be driven by recent performances or news surrounding the athlete's career.

In the entertainment sector, the probability of Tom Cruise being cast in a film with Ana de Armas is at 6.0%, with a trading volume of $431. This movement might be influenced by industry rumors or announcements.

NEW MARKETS WORTH WATCHING

Recent additions to the prediction market landscape include the New York Knicks' chances of winning the 2026 NBA Finals, currently at a 25.3% probability with a substantial volume of $15,946,526. This reflects significant interest in the NBA's future outcomes.

In the political domain, the market on Donald Trump winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election has a probability of 2.1% and a volume of $8,053,877, highlighting continued interest in his political future.